What happened to the rising isolationist sentiment I have documented in recent columns? Just three months ago I concluded, “Isolationism is extending its grip on public opinion.” Americans wanted to be less involved in world affairs and eschewed involvement in a variety of global crises.
Now, seemingly all of a sudden, 83 percent of Americans in the CNN/ORC poll favor “providing humanitarian aid to people in Iraq and Syria.” Three-quarters support military airstrikes against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) forces in Iraq and Syria, though a clear majority remains opposed to committing U.S. ground forces to the fight.
Three months ago in a CBS/New York Times poll, a majority opposed airstrikes by an 8-point margin. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found a majority convinced the U.S. had no responsibility to assist Iraq in preventing the overthrow of its government by insurgents. Using a different wording, Gallup reported Americans opposed military action to assist Iraq in fighting militias by a 15-point margin.
In mid-August Americans even opposed providing arms to Kurdish forces fighting ISIS, according to the ABC/Washington Post poll. Just three weeks later the results flipped dramatically, and suddenly supporters of arming the Kurds outnumbered opponents by 16 points. In that brief period, the number favoring U.S. arms for Kurdish forces increased by 13 points, while opposition shrank by 17 points.
In short order, Americans moved from feeling no responsibility to deal with ISIS and opposing any involvement to supporting airstrikes and arms for combatants. What happened?
Two things:
First, the perception of threat to America was heightened by beheadings and words of warning from military leaders and the intelligence community. The brutal murders of two American journalists angered and frightened Americans. Indeed, 55 percent told pollsters they reacted angrily.
In addition to the anger was fear. After the beheadings, 45 percent told CNN/ORC pollsters that ISIS posed a very serious threat to the U.S. Eleven years ago, only a few more thought the same of al Qaeda. Thus, Americans today are almost as worried about ISIS as they were about al Qaeda two short years after the Sept. 11 attacks. More than 70 percent believe ISIS already has terrorists in the U.S., with the resources to launch a major attack.
A second factor motivating a change in public opinion was President Obama’s decision to involve the U.S. in the struggle against ISIS. While I was busy describing America’s creeping isolationism, I also maintained that the ambit for presidential action was wide and that public opinion would follow presidential leadership on foreign policy.
A YouGov poll, analyzed by former CBS polling director Kathy Frankovic, revealed the direct and immediate impact of the president’s speech. Just before the president outlined his plan, 42 percent supported airstrikes against ISIS. Immediately after Obama’s speech, support for air attacks jumped 10 points, to 52 percent. Support among Democrats skyrocketed by more than 20 points.
If history is a guide, once those strikes begin in earnest, the president’s approval rating will rise as Americans rally around their president in a time of military conflict.
Whether these events portend a broader shift in the tide of isolationist sentiment remains to be seen. It’s possible that Americans’ willingness to be engaged abroad is restricted to action against ISIS.
Whatever the broader implications, though, it’s clear that a combination of a perceived threat to the U.S. homeland, brutal attacks against Americans and presidential leadership have moved public opinion, producing strong majorities in favor of U.S. intervention in the battle against ISIS, though voters still oppose deployment of ground troops. Few are anxious to repeat the mistakes of the Bush administration, which still receives far more blame than does President Obama for the situation in Iraq.
But on ISIS, the president led and the public followed.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the Majority Leader of the Senate and the Democratic Whip in the House.