Republicans have suddenly discovered the economic privations afflicting America’s middle class and those struggling to join it.
Their newfound interest in people they argued for decades would benefit if only the rich were helped to get richer is not motivated by sudden concern over the plight of those left behind, but rather by Donald Trump.
If economic dislocation is the origin of Trumpism, Republicans seem to believe they are absolved of the sins committed by some of Trump’s followers, and can blame President Obama for Trump.
“Obama hasn’t done anything to help these hard-pressed folks,” Republicans lament, conveniently ignoring the fact that the Great Recession began before the president entered office and that, as a result of his labors, we are finally beginning to witness some improvement.
Last week, the Census Bureau reported that during 2015, the poor and middle class enjoyed the greatest economic gains in decades. Much more remains to be done, but contra Trump’s claims, American workers are at last starting to improve their lot because of this administration’s policies.
But I digress.
Republicans and others have been quick to blame Trump’s rise on economic dislocation.
The evidence suggests it’s not so simple.
During the primaries, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight tallied the median household income of the candidates’ supporters, pegging Trump voters at $72,000, well above the national median of about $56,000 and higher than the $61,000 median for supporters of Democrats Hillary Clinton andBernie Sanders.
In short, Trump voters seem to be doing better than most other Americans.
But medians don’t tell the whole story. One segment can have a higher income than another and still be falling down the ladder.
However, that’s not the case for Trump voters, either.
Professor Philip Klinkner analyzed data from the American National Election Study, which asked questions tapping this fear of falling: “Do you think people’s ability to improve their financial well-being is now better, worse, or the same as it was 20 years ago?” “Compared with your parents, do you think it is easier, harder, or neither easier nor harder for you to move up the income ladder?”
Other things being equal, those who feel hard-pressed are no more likely to support Trump over Clinton than those who are optimistic about their potential for improving their economic lot.
Trumpism, then, is not primarily about economic dislocation itself; rather, it arises from the story people tell themselves about the source of their problems.
If you blame Mexicans, Muslims and/or African-Americans for your current straits, you are likely to be a Trump voter.
The data here can be overwhelming. So let’s start with some simple cross tabs.
Last week’s Quinnipiac Poll asked voters how concerned they were “about so-called ‘reverse racism,’ or discrimination against white people, impacting your life” — the notion that minorities are getting ahead at the expense of whites.
Twenty percent of Clinton voters expressed some concern about this “problem,” compared to 64 percent of Trump supporters.
Nine percent of Clinton supporters were “very concerned” about illegal immigration, while 68 percent of Trump voters were preoccupied by this issue.
Klinkner’s statistical analysis found that, next to partisanship, the degree of voters’ racial resentments was the most important determinant of Trump support.
Pew brought its own data to bear. Republicans who feel the growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens us — 77 percent of Republicans hold that view — are twice as likely to love Trump as those Republicans who disagree with that premise.
Sixty-three percent of Republicans who believe it will be bad for the country if, in 30 years, a majority are nonwhite express positive feelings about Trump.
Trumpism is not simply, or even mainly, a response to economic pressures. It arises from xenophobic and racist narratives about the causes of that dislocation.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. Current clients include the minority leader of the Senate and the Democratic whip in the House.