We tend to naturally assume that cruel, kleptocratic dictators are unpopular among their constituents.
It ain’t necessarily so.
Witness Vladimir Putin.
There is no doubt he’s ruthless and evil. A former KGB agent, Putin invaded two sovereign countries even before his latest unprovoked war against Ukraine.
He’s jailed, and even poisoned, his political opponents, in particularly cruel ways, and deprived his fellow Russians of all but the barest of free expression.
Putin also seems to have made himself one of the world’s richest people by looting the public purse for his private benefit. His plunder comes right out of the pockets of hardworking Russians.
You’d think they’d be fed up and ready to end his rule even before the current incursion.
But quite the contrary. Putin appears to be a mostly beloved figure among his constituents.
According to polls by the independent and reliable Levada Center, Putin’s approval rating has been at or above 59 percent in every reading for the past 20 years.
In February, as his buildup on the Ukrainian border progressed, but before the invasion began, Putin’s approval rose to 71 percent.
VCIOM, a polling form owned by the Russian government, similarly pegged Putin’s approval in the low to mid-sixties throughout the year, and also saw it rise as the war against Ukraine commenced. Indeed, its most recent reading on March 20 has 78 percent of Russians approving of Putin’s performance.
How is a kleptomaniacal dictator, who plunged his country into a cruel and deadly war of choice, able to retain the support of his constituents?
First, in a police state like Russia, we must consider the possibility that what appears in the polls is simply deceptive — either because citizens are afraid to answer honestly and/or because pollsters fear reporting accurately.
Telling the truth in Putin’s Russia has been ruled a crime, which carries severe penalties. The reticence of respondents and pollsters alike to report their truths is understandable under such circumstances.
But some of those who have produced surveys recently are fine people with excellent reputations for integrity, and it would seem some of them believe their surveys are producing real and useful information.
One of the things they’re finding is support for Putin’s war, at least in its early days.
Noted American pollster Gary Langer helped bring to public attention a survey conducted by serious Russian researchers in the early days of the war; it found 58 percent of their countrymen approved of the invasion, 46 percent strongly so. Only about 23 percent opposed the war.
Other surveys put support for war as high as 68 percent among Russians, though the pollsters note that many respondents expressed reticence about being open and honest.
The Russian researchers compared support for the attack on Ukraine to that on Chechnya some 20 years ago, noting that initial support for that war fell from 61 percent to 38 percent in six months.
But conflict with Ukraine has in the past buoyed Putin’s numbers, which rose after his annexation of Crimea and inched further upward after the West sanctioned Russia for that annexation.
Going to war has not been Putin’s only move, however. Putin uses the Kremlin-controlled mass media to continuously burnish his image. He’s been named Russia’s most handsome man, was allowed to score eight goals in an all-star amateur hockey match, shot polar bears, and “found” archaeological treasures buried in the sea, among many other feats of daring. His name even brands vodka and food products.
In short, he controls a fawning media that expends considerable effort building his image of “greatness.”
Fear, awe, and control of the media can all help prop up a dictator’s image.
But at the end of the day, performance can still matter. There was a point when clear majorities held Putin responsible for the country’s problems and “only” 49 percent were prepared to vote for him.
We can only hope the evil he is currently inflicting on Ukraine, and on his own people, will further diminish their support for him.
Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.