By Mark S. Mellman – 05/23/12
Independent should never be confused with accurate. A poll conducted by North Dakota’s Forum of Fargo-Moorhead is likely independent, as its purveyors claim, but fatally, indeed laughably, flawed.
First rule of polling – sample the right people. If you are trying to gauge sentiment in California and exclude everyone north of Los Angeles, the poll won’t be an accurate guide to the state. Survey Kansas and you won’t know much about Iowa. Poll primary voters only and you can’t say anything meaningful about the general election.
Yet the last is just what the Forum did. The paper and its pollster, Essman/Research, were honest enough to disclose this fact but apparently ignorant of its implications. After polling voters judged “Likely to vote in the June 12 primary election,” the Forum not only tried to assess support for two measures on the primary ballot but went far beyond the data, drawing conclusions about “the candidates that voters will likely support for … House and