CASE STUDIES .

Background

Nina Turner was the ultimate front runner in Ohio’s 11th CD special primary election. An icon of the far-left, Turner served on Cleveland City Council, represented the area in the State Senate, won the county in a statewide race, served as President of Senator Bernie Sanders’ political organization, Our Revolution and as Co-Chair of Sanders’ presidential campaign.

County Councilwoman Shontel Brown had an outstanding record but was far less well known than Turner. In March, Turner held a 30-point advantage in hard name identification and a 23-point lead in vote. Moreover, Turner used her national profile to generate over $6 million in contributions. Absent a national network, Brown raised about $2.4 million for the primary.

With Turner’s substantial advantage in polling and fundraising, along with her support from the Mayor of Cleveland and popular Democrats like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, many concluded Turner was a lock to win.  Indeed, By June, Turner’s campaign deployed its financial advantage, going on TV unanswered, and then released a poll showing her skyrocketing to a 35-point lead, with 50% of the vote in a 13-candidate field. PreidictIt’s betting market gave us only a 10% shot.

The Election

Nonetheless, our polling revealed a path to victory. We tested positive messaging, focused on Brown’s work for the community and her support for the Biden-Harris agenda, as well as a contrast with Turner noting that she helped Trump by refusing to endorse Clinton; compared voting for Biden to “eating half a bowl of s–t”; and voted against the entire Democratic platform, despite its support for raising the minimum wage, universal health care, and immigration reform.

Experimental designs in our polling demonstrated this combination of positive and contrast could catapult Brown to a 6-point victory.

Our IE deployed outstanding TV, digital and mail repeating these core messages. The Brown campaign itself utilized only positive TV, which would have been inadequate to the task. We carefully rotated our positive and contrast ads based on analysis of tracking and added a targeted GOTV program and on the ground organizing with key constituencies.

Results

Despite pro-Turner forces outspending pro-Brown forces by over $1.25 million, Brown notched a 6-point victory that resonated across the country. “In String of Wins, ‘Biden Democrats’ See a Reality Check for the Left”, said The New York Times.

Indeed, the IE won the Campaigns and Elections Magazine award for “Best Bare Knuckled Street Fight Victory.”