Learning from impeachments past
10/09/2019
Surveys derive meaning from comparisons across time and space. With so little to go by, drawing conclusions about impeachments is difficult. If there’s one overriding lesson from polling in our…
It’s not about the Benjamins, part II
10/01/2019
When we perceive big consequences, we’re naturally inclined to search for big causes. Witnessing a political earthquake, we assume there must be huge tectonic shifts somewhere in the electorate. After…
It’s not about the Benjamins
09/24/2019
Commentators quickly declared Benjamin “Benny” Gantz the winner in Israel’s election over incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. While it seemed likely some Benjamin would emerge victorious, the race wasn’t…
The most important moment in history?
09/17/2019
We’re practically raised to believe that debates impact election results in big ways. Millions watch, candidates spend countless hours preparing, media can’t stop talking, and writing, about them. And, after…
How important is candidate age?
09/10/2019
All three of the presidential candidates now leading the Democratic primary field are 70 years of age or older. Thirteen of the remaining candidates are 60 or under. These facts…
Is the DCCC in successful chaos?
07/31/2019
Two members of Congress recently complained that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is “in chaos.” Turmoil certainly ensued, but I’m not able to evaluate whether chaos reigned at the…
Collusion
07/23/2019
I’m in no position to judge the legal merits of whatever Robert Mueller says today, but the facts uncovered by the special counsel are clear: President Trump and his campaign colluded with Russia. Paul…
The strategy of Donald Trump’s racism
07/16/2019
As you might imagine, I have some pretty serious disagreements with “the squad” on issues of real importance (at least to me). But no policy differences could justify Donald Trump’s…
The strategy of Donald Trump’s racism
07/16/2019
As you might imagine, I have some pretty serious disagreements with “the squad” on issues of real importance (at least to me). But no policy differences could justify Donald Trump’s…
Meeting in Miami
07/09/2019
June’s Democratic debates seem to bear out the conclusion offered in my last column — primary debates can have more impact than general election confrontations. Pundits and polls agree that…