Asymmetric loyalists
01/08/2019
Politicians, pollsters and pundits spend a great deal of time thinking about demographic groups. But demography is rarely political destiny. Group members often don’t see eye to eye and rarely…
If only you couldn’t vote
12/18/2018
A favorite meme in Trump World argues that if it weren’t for California, Hillary Clinton would have lost the national popular vote for president, which she won by almost 3 million ballots. Last…
Enemies of democracy
12/11/2018
Republicans probably don’t think of themselves as enemies of democracy. And many aren’t. But notwithstanding their self-perception, the actions of some GOPers put our democracy at grave risk. Robert Dahl,…
Dems’ presidential pick will be chosen in a flash
12/04/2018
Knowing the 2020 nomination is well worth having, some two dozen Democrats are contemplating entering the primary process. They may want to hurry. While candidates always stay in the primaries…
The triumph of partisanship
11/13/2018
Two forces triumphed on Election Day — Democrats and partisanship. Tuesday brought a broad and deep victory for Democrats, as well as a repudiation of President Trump and his Republican Congress. When…
Can voters tell us whether they’ll turn out?
10/30/2018
It’s that point in the cycle when everyone lowers their voice, along with their head, and knowingly suggests, “It’s all about turnout.” Leaving aside the veracity of the statement itself,…
What I learned from The New York Times
10/23/2018
When The New York Times’s Upshot announced it was “live polling” this year’s hottest races, I wasn’t a fan. But my worst fears weren’t realized and I learned some things…
When questions don’t mean what they say
10/10/2018
Polling is seductive. (Polling, not pollsters.) You ask questions, get answers and turn those answers into numbers. Some people put decimal points next to those numbers to make you think…
Why Kavanaugh should withdraw
10/02/2018
From Sens. John Glenn (D-Ohio), John Kerry (D-Mass.), and Dan Inouye (D-Hawaii) in years past, to Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), Jared Golden and Ken Harbaugh today, I’ve been privileged to work for combat veterans…
When attack ads cross the line
09/11/2018
There ought to be a line. I’ve defended negative ads here in the past and I do believe they can provide legitimate information that is actually useful to voters. But…