Two forces collide
09/04/2018
Nov. 6 will witness the collision of two powerful political forces. Antipathy to President Trump will slam headlong into America’s current political geography. What emerges from that crash will determine not only…
Two worlds — Online and off
08/14/2018
Social listening — monitoring social media for comments, in this case, about your candidate and opponent — is one of the new techniques making its way into political campaigns and…
Are Democrats losing or winning?
07/24/2018
Two months ago, we were deluged with seemingly dismal news for Democrats. Newsweek’s headline asked, “Are Democrats Losing Their 2018 Midterm Advantage?” If the question itself left anyone in doubt, the…
(Mis)interpreting elections
07/17/2018
From our first appearance on earth, human beings have searched for meaning. We naturally incline toward interpreting events and ascribing significance to them. A grizzled journalist of an earlier generation…
What’s wanted in a Supreme Court justice
07/10/2018
What do Americans want from the next Supreme Court justice? First and foremost, they want a consensus nominee. By creating the possibility of a purely partisan pick, Senate Majority Leader Mitch…
Red Hens, babies & the great unraveling
06/26/2018
At the risk of alienating friends, I want to delve, not too deeply, into the now infamous incident at the Red Hen of Lexington, Va. (not to be confused with…
Trump can fix it
06/20/2018
If we didn’t know it from the public outpouring of anger and criticism by leaders across the political spectrum, we now know it from the polls: Americans overwhelmingly oppose President Trump’s…
Truth, significance and probability in polling
06/12/2018
Margin of error is simultaneously the most under,- and most over-used concept in polling, in part because so many people don’t really understand it. A Democratic gubernatorial primary survey in…
Public crimes
06/05/2018
President Trump seems to believe that only crimes committed in secret are really crimes. He “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody”—that’s in public. By contrast, the…
Whither the economy
05/29/2018
Last week, I argued here that voters’ evaluations of economic “realities” are heavily conditioned by their partisan identities. When asked about the economy, many use their response as an opportunity…