Hill column  .

I last examined the Republican presidential nominating contest in February — and my thoughts proved, well, worthless. “For now,” I concluded, “keep an eye on [Scott] Walker and recognize that…

Political contests can be illuminated in a variety of ways. We can analyze them through the prism of candidate images, issue dynamics or voters’ values, among many others. Perhaps the…

Even casual observers of American politics recognize that whites comprise a declining share of the electorate. Most of the ink spilled over this phenomenon has focused on Hispanics and African-Americans,…

Talk shows last weekend abounded with Republicans directing amity and good cheer, sweetness and light, toward one another. It was a verbal love fest after a week of nonstop bloodletting…

Consultants and staff hear the refrain regularly from members: “I know my district/state. I know what they think.” But do they really? It’s hardly a new question. In 1963, University…

A recent Twitter exchange vividly brought to mind a critical flaw in Iowa caucus polling. Peter Daou recalled a national poll showing then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) so far behind in…

I can’t count the number of panels I’ve done over the last year where Republican colleagues swore 2016 would be different. They say they had learned their lesson: the anti-immigrant…

In our representative democracy, public policy only imperfectly reflects public opinion. Fortunately, Democrats passed healthcare reform despite the fact that, among the public at the time, opponents outnumbered supporters by…

How can Americans favor the Iran deal by 18 or 19 percentage points and oppose it by 8 or 10? They can’t. Yet, in recent days, leading pollsters have offered…

How did the party of Lincoln become the party of the Confederate flag? It happened in stages. Almost every state that voted Republican in 1896 voted Democratic in 2000, while…