Keeping polls in context
10/28/2014
The poll was called “humiliating,” “a whopper for the ages,” a “disgrace” — I said it may have been right, at the time it was done. Five months ago, everyone…
Complexity makes errors more likely
10/21/2014
Two weeks ago, a dinner guest intimately familiar with biohazards explained the irony of the white, full-body suits healthcare workers treating Ebola have been wearing on our TV screens. Studies…
Time and chance
10/14/2014
Last week I argued that people who aren’t busy over-interpreting political forecasting models are under-appreciating their meaning and import. Models are, by definition, simplifications of reality and are necessarily incomplete.…
Misreading Senate forecasts
10/07/2014
When I was in graduate school, deconstructionism was the intellectual rage with my humanities oriented friends. One of deconstruction’s central tenets is that “all reading is misreading.” I heard it…
Finding the forecast
09/30/2014
With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, all the drama appears to be in that body, with far less focus on the House, which is important in its…
Did the polls lose in Scotland?
09/23/2014
Many are looking at Scotland’s independence referendum as a referendum on poll accuracy as well. And the general consensus is that polls failed the test. One analyst called it “a…
On ISIS, US no longer isolationist
09/16/2014
What happened to the rising isolationist sentiment I have documented in recent columns? Just three months ago I concluded, “Isolationism is extending its grip on public opinion.” Americans wanted to…
Tipping point for campaign finance
09/09/2014
America has flourished because we have carefully safeguarded the complex interplay between politics and markets, between a system where every vote counts equally and one where money talks. Free markets…
2014: A look at the basics
09/24/2014
As we begin the countdown to Election Day, where do we stand on the fundamentals, those structural factors that impact every race on the ballot? It’s a midterm. Perhaps the…
Are you happy?
08/05/2014
In this political year, only a lucky few of those streaming out of the nation’s capital this summer are headed for a real vacation, but they are doing so with…