Hill column  .

With everyone dissecting polls, I thought some not-so-secret secrets of poll-watching might be appreciated.   My most important caveat – simply looking at the margin in a single poll, at…

Two years ago, Steve Schmidt was feted by the American Association of Political Consultants as the GOP Campaign Manager of the Year for resuscitating the political fortunes of Arnold Schwarzenegger,…

For better or worse, the vice presidential debate will not affect the outcome of the race one iota. Nonetheless, one of its most striking features – with implications for Wednesday…

A couple of weeks ago, I argued that national trends were moving decisively in Barack Obama’s direction, though in a rather predictable way. Those trends have continued, magnified, perhaps, by…

How often have you heard this year’s presidential debates described as “critical,” “all-important” or even “decisive”? About as frequently as you have in every election year, I’d bet. We like…

A few weeks ago, I was lamenting the confusion created by all the contradictory polls and urging readers to ignore them in favor of a focus on the fundamentals. Those…

While he appears to have been a wanton and callow youth, John McCain tells us he discovered honor in a North Vietnamese prison camp. McCain has either forgotten what honor…

John McCain offers America a welter of contradictions in both character and policy – contradictions so profound they call into question the fundamental premises of his campaign.   McCain’s brash…

In selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as his running mate, John McCain violated the first, and perhaps only, rule of vice presidential selection – first do no harm.  …

I’d love to know what is going on in this presidential race – and as a pollster I really should. Instead of enhancing my overall understanding, though, the plethora of…