Liking our policy, but not our performance
12/01/2021
Shortly after Democrats lost a then-historic 52 House seats in the 1994 midterms, incoming Democratic National Committee chair Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.), gathered some party strategists to assess what happened.…
Are independents really so independent?
11/17/2021
People repeat it regularly. “Partisanship is in decline. Independents are the booming segment.” Political partisanship entails at least two distinctly different facets, and keeping them separate is important. On the…
Election 2021 aftermath: How big was that swing?
11/10/2021
A few brave souls have tried to argue that last Tuesday was a good night for Democrats. That’s a very difficult assertion to defend. But take the analysis much deeper and…
Election lessons
11/03/2021
Once again, you have the advantage over me. As you read this, you know what happened on Election Day. As I write on Monday, the outcomes remain uncertain. But I…
The trout in the milk
10/27/2021
Political practitioners find it amusing, and mildly threatening, that political scientists are still debating whether campaigns matter. Every consultant has tales to tell prospective clients about how their stratagem, or…
The abuse of drug polling
10/20/2021
PhRMA, the trade association of prescription drug companies, wrongly reinterpreted a poll showing overwhelming support for government negotiating drug prices, to suggest the survey found the opposite. The problem is…
Understanding Democrats’ present and past in polling
10/13/2021
Projecting the present into the future is easy, but often a mistake, especially in dynamic environments characterized by rapid change. Errors compound when even the present is murky. Just how…
McConnell’s strategy: Hurt the country to help the GOP
09/29/2021
I’ve said it with regard to Supreme Court confirmations and voting rights legislation, but I have to say it again: “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has proved particularly adept at inventing…
Recall lessons
09/22/2021
California Gov. Gavin Newsom amassed a huge vote count, 63.4 percent, to defeat the attempt by Trump Republicans to recall him. (The exact number could change a bit as the state continues…
The anomaly of Republican unanimity
09/15/2021
This questionable imitation of a column notwithstanding, I’m not a journalist and therefore play no role in determining what the story is. In my humble opinion, however, by focusing on…