Predicting Jewish Vote More Complicated

Democrats Have Edge, But GOP Aided by Orthodox and Israel

By Michael Bloomfield and Mark Mellman, The Jewish Daily ForwardPublished November 14, 2011, issue of November 18, 2011.

Understanding the Jewish vote requires appreciating at least four realities:

1. Impelled by our history and tradition, American Jews remain deeply devoted to the values of the Democratic Party and repelled by those of the Republicans. Like Democrats, Jews are committed to a pluralistic society that respects the rights of all; to creating opportunity while demanding responsibility; to separation of church and state; to quality education; to a woman’s right to choose, and to protecting the natural world God entrusted to us. That coincidence of commitments has made Jews one of the Democratic Party’s most loyal constituencies: In the past four presidential elections, more than three-quarters of Jewish voters cast ballots for the Democratic nominee. Indeed, in the several most recent l presidential elections, only three groups have given Democrats more than 70% of their votes – blacks, Jews, and gay men and lesbians.

Helping cement Jews’ Democratic loyalty has been the Republicans’ hard-right shift. As anti-pluralist forces of the evangelical right captured the GOP, Jews embraced Democrats in even greater numbers. Prior to the religious right’s takeover of the Republican Party, about two-thirds of Jews were voting for Democratic presidential candidates, but that jumped to three-quarters when cultural divisions began playing a more prominent role in our politics. In fact, as conservatism became increasingly identified with these cultural issues, Jews fled the conservative label, as well. Through the late 1980s, Jews were about 20 points more liberal than they were conservative. In the past several cycles, that difference has risen to more than 30 points.

2. While Jews care deeply about these domestic issues, support for Israel also plays a critical role in the community’s voting behavior. No politician can expect to do well with Jewish voters if the community is not convinced of his or her bedrock support for Israel. Yes, a poll conducted for J Street concluded in part “


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