Deciding whether or not to impeach and convict a president should always be difficult. Such a step should never be taken lightly. In the case of Donald Trump’s second impeachment, the argument for conviction has been framed around justice and accountability. Trump incited an insurrection against the United States and, like any other serious law breaker,…
The Hill and I are taking an end-of-year break. While we’re gone, you’ll no doubt be devouring endless analyses of the 2020 election. Be careful. Much of the data being analyzed, and the tools being employed, are laden with problems and pitfalls. Start with the exit polls. Some critics of these instruments have become rabid,…
Monday before Election Day, researching a piece that’ll never be read, I noticed Donald Trump’s approval rating had crept up to nearly 46 percent. Having analyzed here the close relationship between presidents’ approval and their vote totals, I was momentarily taken aback. For most of his term, Trump languished between 40-42 percent, which was consistent with Joe…
Here’s the good news: Thousands of state and local officials — attorneys general, secretaries of state, governors, state and county boards of elections, and state and local law enforcement — are working assiduously to protect your right to vote, to have that vote counted and to ensure that vote counts in deciding our nation’s future.…
We tend to think about voters as individuals whose personal characteristics determine their candidate choices. We focus on attributes like race, gender, education and age. Such individual distinctions are clearly important, but too often we give short shrift to social characteristics. For example, there’s no question that population density drives voting patterns. The more densely…
American leaders often speak as if our country is the world’s prime exemplar, and prime proponent, of democracy. The public differs. Today, in the minds of our citizens (ignoring, for the moment, our government’s actions), America suffers from a democratic deficit. We can see and measure that deficit in multiple ways: • The number of…
Twenty-seven years ago, the late, great, Ruth Bader Ginsburg was confirmed to her seat on the Supreme Court by a 96-3 Senate vote. Whichever president ends up appointing her, it’s inconceivable that Ginsburg’s successor will elicit anything close to that level of bipartisan support. That speaks volumes about the changes convulsing American politics. Let me recount some…
You’ve already witnessed Tuesday night’s debate. Writing during the day Tuesday, I haven’t. But I’ll bet you’ve also been showered with commentary suggesting it could “rattle the race,” “shake up the standings,” or change the course of the election, and of history. We love the illusion that the skills on display in debates somehow map…
I’ve been privileged to work with many campaign managers over the years, nearly all of whom have been wonderful. Most of them taught me important lessons. At least once a cycle though, I have some variant of the following conversation: Campaign Manager: I really need our poll to find out XYZ. Me: I understand why…
New York Times data journalist extraordinaire, Nate Cohn, used Twitter last week to announce the Times was “switching to likely voters.” That is, their polls would now reflect the opinions of voters likely to turnout in November. The Times is hardly alone, so it’s a propitious moment to trot out one of my favorite polling…
Whether winning for you means getting more votes than your opponent, selling more product, changing public policy, raising more money or generating more activism, The Mellman Group transforms data into winning strategies.
