James Carville was not the first person to discern a link between politics and the economy. Though no one had phrased it quite so artfully before (“It’s the economy, stupid”), the connection was already explicit in 1814 when Lord Brougham, future British chancellor of the Exchequer, complained that the government of William Pitt derived its support less from “constant, uniform, quiet prosperity” than from “those damned spurts which Pitt used to have just in the nick of time.”

Note Brougham’s familiarity with both sides of the equation – politicians are helped by economic growth and politicians in turn seek to manipulate the economy to create growth spurts at just the right time.

The idea is hardly foreign to American politicians. Richard Nixon recalls in his autobiography, “I knew from bitter experience how, in both 1954 and 1958, slumps which hit bottom early in October contributed to substantial Republican losses in the House and Senate.” Nixon also attributed his 1