Rhodes Cook, one of our most astute and least heralded political analysts, continues a venerable tradition of focusing not on polls, but on counting votes. Prior to November, he divined three patterns among big-wave House elections.

A “one-party surge” occurs when that party significantly increases its national vote, while the vote for the other party remains essentially unchanged. Such was 1994: The GOP vote ballooned by almost 9.5 million over the previous midterm, while the Democratic vote dropped by about 400,000. 1974 witnessed a “one-party collapse,” as Democrats gained 1.1 million votes from 1970, but Republicans lost nearly three times as many. Finally, there are “unequal gains,” typified by 1982, when Republicans added a substantial 3 million votes, but were outdone by Democrats, who picked up an additional 6 million votes from 1978.

The dramatic fact about 2006 is that it fit none of the prior patterns. It combined a one-party surge with a one-party collapse. Democrats added over 5 million voters, while the GOP tally declined by over 3 million from the last midterm. The Democratic victory and the repudiation of Republicans were both broad and deep.

As instructive as these vote counts can be, they do have limitations. In studying a relatively small number of wave elections, Cook identified three different patterns. Yet 2006 fell into none of the preexisting categories. It was different. While the past is always prologue, it is not always prophetic. New patterns and new relationships can emerge.

Karl Rove apparently neglected this lesson, assuming patterns he found in two previous elections would hold in this one. As Newsweek reported, “The polls