Fundamentally flawed
07/05/2016
Over the last dozen years, I have often confessed to being a fundamentalist. This is not a statement of religious conviction, but rather an expression of my belief about what’s…
A study of Brexit
06/21/2016
Investors around the world just bet billions on British polls. “A rally in European stocks Monday propelled the regional benchmark to its best daily percentage performance in nearly 10 months…
What’s Bernie’s plan?
06/07/2016
Realism is a trait not always characteristic of presidential candidates. After all, to get up each morning for a year and a half or more to face grinding 18-hour days…
Parsing the polls
05/24/2016
In recent days, two sets of very smart people have disputed the nature and meaning of current polls. Rather than get myself in trouble by wading directly into the conflict,…
Time to regulate cosmetics
05/17/2016
Not long ago, a mother washing her 9-year-old daughter’s hair lifted her hand to find the girl’s entire head of hair falling out by the handful. The mother, whose daughter…
Primary turnout doesn’t count
05/10/2016
Data-driven journalism is a blessing. But one of its less salubrious side effects is the tendency on the part of some — mostly non-data journalists — to see everything can…
Give positive a chance
05/03/2016
Consultants are trained by experience, and by mentors, to go negative. There are few more powerful norms among political professionals. When in trouble, when in doubt — whenever, really —…
Figures and factions
04/26/2016
With all eyes fixed firmly on the fissures Donald Trump is creating in the GOP, the deep divisions among congressional Republicans are going largely unnoticed. It’s hard to overestimate the…
Two Americas?
04/19/2016
It’s often said that Democrats and Republicans inhabit different countries. At least, they seem to see the same country quite differently. They certainly feel differently about it. Last month, a…
Obama’s rising ratings
04/12/2016
Presidential approval is the single most important piece of political data that is regularly collected. That’s not just because the presidency is the most important office in the land; it…