Mark Mellman

Consultants and staff hear the refrain regularly from members: “I know my district/state. I know what they think.” But do they really? It’s hardly a new question. In 1963, University…

A recent Twitter exchange vividly brought to mind a critical flaw in Iowa caucus polling. Peter Daou recalled a national poll showing then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) so far behind in…

I can’t count the number of panels I’ve done over the last year where Republican colleagues swore 2016 would be different. They say they had learned their lesson: the anti-immigrant…

In our representative democracy, public policy only imperfectly reflects public opinion. Fortunately, Democrats passed healthcare reform despite the fact that, among the public at the time, opponents outnumbered supporters by…

How can Americans favor the Iran deal by 18 or 19 percentage points and oppose it by 8 or 10? They can’t. Yet, in recent days, leading pollsters have offered…

How did the party of Lincoln become the party of the Confederate flag? It happened in stages. Almost every state that voted Republican in 1896 voted Democratic in 2000, while…

I probably shouldn’t tell you this: I deal partly in science, and the more science-y I make it look and sound, the more persuasive I am. I don’t know that…

"Running government like a business” is a mantra for many politicians, particularly Republicans. Two GOP governors who are trying to become president, Ohio’s John Kasich and Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, made…

Last week ended with a momentous Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage, while this week closes with the patriotism of the Fourth of July. I’m actually going to try to…

How do you expect voters would react to members of Congress supporting a bill that tramples on the rights of states and localities, creates a government bureaucracy to replace a…