Hill column  .

Human beings display a natural inclination to overweigh the causal role of people in producing outcomes, while underweighting the role of circumstances, of situations. Indeed, this tendency is so pervasive…

We’re accustomed to the trope that this year’s presidential election featured the two most unpopular candidates in history. It’s true, but it was not foreordained, at least not for Hillary…

How did the most unpopular presidential candidate in history (at least in the history of polling) accede to the highest office in the land? It matters that our constitutional system…

Before diving into observations about the last Tuesday’s results, as a pollster, I feel compelled to write this first post-election column about the survey research misses. First, put the errors…

Just how likely is it that the polls will be right? Notice first, I said, polls, plural, with an “s.” There is no particular reason any one poll should be…

We think of “follow the leader” as a rather inane children’s game. It’s much more than that. In an adult version, it describes how many partisans go about deciding their…

Perhaps we have reason to be complacent about the persistence of our democracy. It’s lasted nearly 230 years, through war, depression, recession, cultural change and even civil war. Still not…

Where to begin? Stranger things have never happened in presidential politics — at least in the modern era. A candidate for the highest office in the land gleefully describing his…

As a wise and wizened reporter once pointed out: “Buried deep inside that word ‘newspaper’ is the word ‘news.’ And inside that, you’ve got ‘new.’ ” This aphorism explains why…

We enjoy believing debates are central determinants of election outcomes. They give campaigns a focus, journalists a hook around which to wrap their coverage and citizens the illusion that we…