No peas in a pod
02/23/2016
There’s a facile assumption abroad in the land that the two “outsider” presidential candidates in their respective parties, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, are different sides of the same coin,…
Similarities, differences in Iowa, NH
02/16/2016
The first two nominating events of this election cycle, Iowa and New Hampshire, produced different winners in both parties. Why? It wasn’t an intervening event or an issue that played…
The Iowa fallout
02/02/2016
Last weekend, a leading conservative intellectual promised me Donald Trump would not win Iowa. “How can you be so sure?” I asked. “God,” he replied, “looks out for children, drunkards…
Learning from poll autopsies
01/26/2016
As polls pour out of early primary states, it’s worth examining just how complex and fragile those instruments are. Recently we’ve been treated to three polling autopsies that illustrate potential…
Parsing the primary processes
01/20/2016
I19f Democrats and Republicans were holding their national primaries 12 days from now, on Feb. 1, we could predict each party’s nominee with relative confidence. Hillary Clinton enjoys a 16-point…
American jihad?
01/12/2016
Since Donald Trump hasn’t forsaken his efforts to fan fear of Islam, I will pick up today’s column where I left off in December, examining more of the flaws in…
Murky polling on Muslims
12/15/2015
Donald Trump’s anti-Muslim demagoguery is the latest attempt to undermine the pluralism and diversity that are among America’s greatest strengths. To bolster their claims, demagogues frequently resort to pseudoscience, and…
Who votes? Who cares?
12/08/2015
In graduate school, our departmental T-shirts featured the titles of two books authored by distinguished faculty. The front asked “Who Governs?”, the title of Robert Dahl’s classic dissecting the nature…
Personality and politics
12/01/2015
Democrats and Republicans think differently about many issues. Republicans are more likely to oppose abortion and gay rights and less likely to support a government role in helping the poor…
Rights and wrongs in Venezuela
11/17/2015
On Saturday night, the International Association of Political Consultants bestowed its highest honor, the Democracy Medal, on a man serving a 14-year prison sentence. No, it was not confirmation that…