Why Obama doesn’t hold big lead
08/12/2008
Despite my attempt to bat it down several weeks ago, the question persists: “Given the Democrats’ substantial advantages on the fundamentals, why isn’t Barack Obama doing better against John McCain?”…
Time to play ‘pick a poll’ again
08/05/2008
Once again, it’s time to play “pick a poll, any poll,” and tell any story you want. Barack Obama’s overseas trip was one of the most widely covered events…
Changing electoral demographics
07/29/2008
Among the many good deeds done by the Pew Research Center is a handy comparison of its June polls, conducted during each of the last three presidential election cycles. Holding…
McCain’s foreign policy woes
07/22/2008
As Barack Obama earns plaudits around the globe, the Bush administration is embracing the central tenets of Obama’s foreign policy, as voters did long ago, leaving John McCain alone and…
Obama lead wrongly minimized
07/15/2008
How big is big? The question arises in numerous contexts – here, in exploring the nature and significance of Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain. As I have argued…
Whether Europeans use mirrors
07/08/2008
America has long endured the scorn of Europeans who see our president, and by extension our country, as arrogant, ignorant, narrow and largely uncivilized. One European opined in an…
The cultural politics of guns
07/01/2008
With so many other pressing problems vying for top billing, gun issues will not decide this presidential election. Nonetheless, gun control has helped Democrats win in places like California…
Gay marriage redux
06/24/2008
An inaccurate storyline is already developing around the 2008 election, built on a mythology about 2004. The story goes like this – California’s decision to legalize gay marriage, and…
Ignore the polls – trust fundamentals
06/17/2008
Analysts of the latest ABC/Washington Post poll note ominously that Barack Obama’s current lead is identical to John Kerry’s in June 2004. True, but the context, and thus the…
It’s the rules that rule
06/10/2008
Intuitively believing that attitudes determine behavior, we instinctively infer the former from the latter. So it is with the demise of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. Analyses mix examination of…