On a podium we shared the other day, my Republican colleague Whit Ayres summarized a great deal of what passes for political analysis. Preceding me in the speaking lineup, Ayres noted that in 2006 and 2008 he urged listeners in such forums to remember that it was a long time until Election Day and much could change. This year, he predicted, I would say the same thing – and he was partly right.

The relative place of continuity and change is an enduring question in all species of human knowledge.

There was a time when my children, waking up early for school, would ask what the weather would be that day. Without the benefit of a forecast, or even a peek out the window, I would reply from my bed, “Pretty much like yesterday.” Often I’d be close

Between Feb. 19 and 23 this year, the average daily temperature in Washington fluctuated between 39 and 40.7 degrees. Each day looked like the one before.

It’s a mental shortcut we all take – we assume tomorrow will look pretty much like today.

Hence we witnessed widespread Democratic triumphalism in the heady days after election 2008. In the joyous aftermath, one pundit proclaimed “the culmination of a Democratic realignment