By Mark Mellman – 09/14/10
It’s axiomatic: Producing accurate results requires a poll to survey the right people. Often this stricture is observed in the breach.
To illustrate the problem, I will violate a fundamental rule of my profession: that consultants never talk about their losses. Indeed, we seem to share a genetic defect that prevents us from even recalling such rare events – it’s the only way we can all maintain our 90 percent win records.
Though I am going to violate that venerable rule here, don’t despair – it will prove self-serving nonetheless, thereby restoring order and balance to the world.
A few weeks ago, an outstanding client, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, lost the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nomination for governor of Minnesota. A dynamic campaigner, she won the endorsements of major newspapers, educators, labor organizations and the DFL itself. A new face on the statewide scene, she succumbed to former Sen. Mark Dayton, who outspent her by 3 to 1, while another opponent outspent her 4 to 1. Despite her severe financial disadvantage, Kelliher lost by a single percentage point.
How accurate were the polls? Ahem