Oblivious to decades of poll data and campaign experience, Speaker McCarthy is allowing the far-right Freedom Caucus to lead his Republican Conference like lemmings over the cliff into political oblivion.

It’s one of the oldest, strongest, and most consistent poll findings on record.

Americans are happy to cut government spending in general, but adamantly oppose cuts in most all specific areas.

AP and the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) did a deep dive into spending issues a few months ago and found 60% of Americans saying the U.S. government was spending “too much.”

Presumably that majority wants to pare federal outlays.

But which spending?

Just 29% say we are spending too much on the military. Little support for reductions there.

Social Security and Medicare? Just 7% and 10% respectively believe too much is being spent on those programs.

“Okay,” you say, “we’re hitting third rails.” True perhaps, but those three third rails, plus interest on the debt, account for over half of federal expenditures.

“What about some Biden favorites,” Republicans might argue, “should be easy pickings there.”

But only 11% want reductions in infrastructure spending. Just 25% see too much spending on the environment and 20% on scientific research. Even fewer, 16%, say the same about assistance with childcare.

“Surely,” GOPers say, “we can demagogue welfare.” But only 18% would curtail “aid to the poor” in the AP/NORC survey. In YouGov polling earlier this year, just 15% favored cutting Medicaid, 17% would cut SNAP, only 16% supported cuts to WIC, and the same small number favored cutting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.

So, no, voters don’t want to scale down those safety net programs.

Only 12% would countenance cuts to education spending and, GOP efforts to demonize law enforcement notwithstanding, just 23% favor reductions there.

My apologies for the long recitation of numbers, but I hope the point is clear. While voters want to cut government spending generally, large majorities oppose cuts in almost every specific category.

Yet, catering to the demands of the Freedom Caucus, Speaker McCarthy will force every House Republican to vote for massive spending cuts in each and every one of these programs, alienating the vast majority of Americans.

Republican appropriators already proposed cutting education by over $22 billion which will mean firing 220,000 teachers across the country, increasing class sizes. In addition, they’re cutting over a billion dollars from STEM education.

To say voters will be angry about such reductions puts it mildly.

Unlike Democrats, Republicans are actually defunding the police, eliminating $10 billion from the FBI, which means fewer agents, and $2 billion from federal prosecutors which means fewer criminals brought to justice.

The GOP is backing a nearly 40%, $4 billion, cut to the Environmental Protection Agency which translates into fewer resources to clean up the Great Lakes, the Chesapeake Bay and Long Island Sound, as well as less assistance for clean drinking water across the country.

Republicans are cutting cancer research, mental health support, and preschool.

GOP House members will end up voting for these or similar cuts because Speaker McCarthy first surrendered to the Freedom Caucus on the debt limit negotiations and then gave them license to cut even more, after the deal was complete.

But Republicans are unlikely to stop with votes to slash crowd-pleasing spending. At the insistence of the far-right, the GOP will likely shut down the government in an attempt to force these unpopular cuts.

That’s what happened in 1996 and Democrats won races as a result.

That year we campaigned against the GOP shutdown and for preventing Republican cuts to Medicare, education, and the environment. The result: 18 Republicans lost their seats to Democratic challengers, while only three Democrat were defeated.

Far less would flip the House in 2024.

Circumstances and context have changed, but Republicans seem intent on following the far-right down the same path toward defeat in response to their effort to slash popular spending.