April

Theories of voting abound, but most assume it’s a rational act. We might consider each candidate’s positions on issues and vote for the one closest to us, at least on…

The Republicans of 1973/74 seem like a totally different breed than those we’re saddled with today. We recall them as facing the tribulations of Watergate determined to uncover the truth,…

With fewer people willing to be interviewed for surveys, pollsters fret about our samples no longer being representative. And if you don’t have a representative sample, there’s no reason to…

Not long ago, Republicans were pressing journalists to ask every Democrat whether they would vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.  Donald Trump chortled at the mention of her name,…

In 1952, Republicans successfully urged Americans to “Vote for peace; Vote for prosperity; Vote for Ike” (Eisenhower). Even before then, those two sets of issues — peace and prosperity —…

Survey questions asking whether voters want to impeach and remove Donald Trump from office are now mesmerizing pundits and pols.  Important as it seems, it may be the wrong question…

Surveys derive meaning from comparisons across time and space. With so little to go by, drawing conclusions about impeachments is difficult. If there’s one overriding lesson from polling in our…

When we perceive big consequences, we’re naturally inclined to search for big causes. Witnessing a political earthquake, we assume there must be huge tectonic shifts somewhere in the electorate.  After…

Commentators quickly declared Benjamin “Benny” Gantz the winner in Israel’s election over incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. While it seemed likely some Benjamin would emerge victorious, the race wasn’t…

We’re practically raised to believe that debates impact election results in big ways. Millions watch, candidates spend countless hours preparing, media can’t stop talking, and writing, about them.  And, after…