April

Sometimes evidence explodes myths. Consider these three, oft repeated in the days leading up to this election, but dramatically undercut by its results. First is the myth that in an…

The contours of Tuesday night’s results should come as no surprise to readers of this column. There was a substantial anti-Republican wave in a fully nationalized election resulting in Democratic…

A campaign claiming it was going to “win on turnout” used to be regarded as a certain loser. Suddenly, it’s not a joke anymore. Republican operatives are claiming their 72-hour…

It would be a delicious irony if Francine Busby’s defeat last June turned out to model Democratic victories in November. After Busby’s loss, Republicans proclaimed Democrats’ hopes for 2006 dead.…

We are entering the season of explanations. Before and after the election, we will be treated to a bewildering panoply of analyses purporting to explain why it turned out the…

Pollsters know it instinctively. Commentators debate its nuances, while journalists largely ignore it. Named by Nick Panagakis in 1989, the “incumbent rule” argues that most voters who are undecided late…

Republicans have had complete control of the United States government for four years. In all that time, what skills, what issues, have they mastered?   They promised to tackle the…

Every cycle Democratic pollsters develop messages that purport to give our candidates substantial leads over Republicans. But too regularly those messages disappoint by losing. To cite one example, on Election…

About $1.6 billion worth of political ads will grace our TV screens this year. In many cases, the sponsors will have little idea how effective those ads will be before…

I did not think about it at the time, but for the last few months, I was an ordinary voter, in the midst of competitive campaigns in the District of…